How much are small-group health insurance premiums going up for 2027?

Insurers filing 2027 small-group rates asked for a median 14% increase, according to KFF’s August 6, 2026 review of nearly 300 insurers. Healthcare Dive reported on August 7, 2026 that most requests fall between 10% and 20%, with six above 30%. Employer surveys from Mercer, Aon and Business Group on Health, published August 2026, project 8% to 9.5%.

What the 14% measures

Every year, insurers that sell small-group coverage file the rates they want to charge next year with state regulators. KFF pulled those preliminary 2027 filings together on August 6, 2026 and found that nearly 300 insurers, across all 50 states and DC, asked for a median proposed increase of 14%. In KFF’s words, “Nearly 300 insurers offering small group coverage reported a median proposed premium increase of 14% for next year.”

It’s a proposed rate, not a final one. State regulators still review the filings. It’s a median, so half the insurers asked for more and half asked for less. And it’s specific to small-group coverage, not a blend of every employer plan in the country.

Healthcare Dive’s August 7, 2026 report on the same analysis showed where the requests clustered: “Most insurers want to raise rates between 10% and 20%, though six want to hike rates above 30%.” So the 30%-plus filings are real, but they’re six insurers out of nearly 300.

Why the employer surveys land lower

Mercer, Aon and Business Group on Health each survey employers about what they expect health coverage to cost per employee next year. Their 2027 projections run from 8% to 9.5%, lower than the median 14% increase that small-group insurers filed (KFF, August 6, 2026).

Mercer’s survey, published August 31, 2026, projects that health plan cost per employee will rise 8.2% in 2027, which Mercer calls the highest increase since 2003. Employers said the cost of their current plans would rise 11% if they took no action to lower it, so the 8.2% already assumes employers will change something to hold costs down. Mercer’s actuaries also estimate that rising GLP-1 use accounts for a full percentage point of 2027 cost growth on its own.

Aon, in a release carried by PR Newswire on August 20, 2026, projects U.S. employer health care costs will rise 9.5% in 2027, pushing per-employee cost above $19,000.

Business Group on Health’s 2027 survey, reported by MedCity News on August 25, 2026, has employers anticipating a median 9.2% cost trend in 2027, or 8% after plan design changes. The same report looks back ten years: costs could rise 76% from 2018 to 2027, counting the 2026 and 2027 projections before plan changes.

The employer surveys measure what employers expect to pay after the plan changes they intend to make, and they aren’t limited to small groups. The rate filings measure what insurers asked to charge small groups before any of that happens. A 14% filed median and an 8% to 9.5% projected employer cost don’t contradict each other: insurers filed what they want to charge, and employers reported what they expect to pay after they change their plans.

What actuarial trend adds to the picture

Trend is the actuarial estimate of how fast claims costs are growing, before an insurer prices a plan or an employer changes one. Segal’s 2027 Health Plan Cost Trend Survey, published July 23, 2026, projects prescription drug trend above 11%. It also puts medical trend, in Segal’s words, at “nearing double digits,” and about the same whether the plan is a PPO, an HMO or a high-deductible plan.

Both the rate filings and the employer surveys start from trend. Anything filed above trend is the insurer’s own pricing. And in Segal’s numbers, moving from a PPO to an HMO or a high-deductible plan barely changes that underlying growth rate.

Where does your renewal sit?

Take the percentage on your renewal letter and hold it against what insurers asked for. KFF’s August 6, 2026 review of nearly 300 small-group filings put the median request at 14%, and Healthcare Dive reported on August 7, 2026 that most insurers asked for between 10% and 20%, with six above 30%.

If your increase is under 10%, you came in below the median and below most of the filings. You’re closer to what the employer surveys project than to what insurers asked for, and for 2027 that’s a good place to be.

If your increase is between 10% and 20%, you’re in the middle of the pack. That’s where most insurers filed, and 14% is the center of it. A renewal in this band doesn’t mean your carrier singled you out.

If your increase is above 20%, you’re in the upper part of the filings. Above 30%, you’re in the tail with the six insurers Healthcare Dive flagged on August 7, 2026. If you’re there, the question worth answering is whether the carrier’s filed increase in your state was that high, or whether something on your side changed.

To put those percentages in dollars, KFF’s employer coverage survey from October 22, 2025 reported a family premium of $26,993, with workers contributing $6,850 of that from their paychecks, and a single-coverage deductible of $1,886 among workers who face one. Whatever your percentage is, it gets added to that.

What these numbers don’t say

The filed median is a request. State regulators can push back, and the rate on your renewal can differ from what your carrier filed. The number to trust is the one on your letter.

A national median hides where you are. Your renewal depends on your state, your carrier, your plan and who’s on it. Two groups of the same size in the same town can get very different letters.

The employer surveys aren’t small-group numbers. Mercer, Aon and Business Group on Health surveyed employers broadly, not small groups specifically, and their projections already count the plan changes those employers intend to make. Reading Mercer’s 8.2% (August 31, 2026) as your likely renewal would be a mistake.

None of these figures says anything about 2028. They tell you where 2027 is landing.

This page is refreshed each quarter as filings are finalized and surveys update. Every figure above was checked on its source page on September 11, 2026.

If your broker’s answer to the increase is an ICHRA, a level-funded plan or a PEO, what each one changes for your plan and your employees is on its own page. If you want to compare your renewal to what SIMERP estimates, simerp.com/renewal does that with two numbers from your letter.

References

• KFF, How much and why premiums are going up for small businesses in 2027, August 6, 2026. https://www.kff.org/health-costs/how-much-and-why-premiums-are-going-up-for-small-businesses-in-2027/
• Healthcare Dive, report on KFF’s analysis of 2027 small-group rate filings, August 7, 2026. https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/small-business-health-insurance-premiums-2027-kff-rate-filings/827247/
• Mercer, survey of employer health plan cost projections for 2027, August 31, 2026. https://www.mercer.com/en-us/insights/us-health-news/survey-health-benefit-costs-expected-to-jump-in-2027/
• Aon via PR Newswire, U.S. employer health care costs continue multi-year climb, projected to rise 9.5% in 2027, August 20, 2026. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aon-us-employer-health-care-costs-continue-multi-year-climb-projected-to-rise-9-5-in-2027--302855864.html
• Business Group on Health via MedCity News, employer health care costs projected to rise 9.2% in 2027, August 25, 2026. https://medcitynews.com/2026/08/business-group-on-health-employer-healthcare-costs-projected-to-rise-9-2-in-2027/
• Segal, 2027 Health Plan Cost Trend Survey, July 23, 2026. https://www.segalco.com/consulting-insights/2027-health-plan-cost-trend-survey/
• KFF, annual family premiums for employer coverage in 2025 and what workers pay toward them, October 22, 2025. https://www.kff.org/health-costs/annual-family-premiums-for-employer-coverage-rise-6-in-2025-nearing-27000-with-workers-paying-6850-toward-premiums-out-of-their-paychecks/